Showing posts with label Climate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Climate. Show all posts

Sunday, April 7, 2013

Sea Ice Max Continues Downward Trend


In September 2012, the ice cap over the Arctic Ocean shrank to its lowest extent on record, about half the size of the average summertime extent from 1979 to 2000. That sea ice minimum continued a long-term trend of diminishing ice cover over the past few decades.

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Coldest March on record in parts of Ireland

Monthly mean temperatures were below average, with differences of -3°C or more in most parts.  Mean temperatures were the lowest on record nearly everywhere except in the South and Southwest.

Monday, April 1, 2013

Ireland's cold spell explained

The situation we find ourselves in now is no different to what we experienced in January and December 2010 in terms of a blocking setup with high pressure to our northeast/north feeding in cold air that can be traced back all the way to Siberia and ultimately the Arctic. The result of this blocking setup has been to shift the jetstream further south over Iberia and North Africa bringing these areas the cooler westerlies and showers that we would be more accustomed to at this time of year. In fact, the week just gone has seen Ireland experience its coldest 7-day period since January 2010. Obviously, the prolonged nature of this cold spell would have resulted in much more widespread, severe conditions had the spell occurred during the peak winter months.

Down through history, Ireland has experienced blasts of wintry weather late into the Celtic spring season. The early months of 1947 saw one of the most persistent cold spell of the century, with snowfalls affecting all parts of the country from late January until mid-March. In 1908, much Leinster and east Munster was affected by heavy snow in late April. In mid-March 1886, a great blizzard with snow depths up to 60cm struck Ulster.  A couple of weeks later between April 7th and 10th there was heavy snow, especially in the West and Midlands.

On average, Malin Head in Donegal records 2.3 days of lying snow each April compared to 2.0 in Mullingar (Westmeath) and 1.9 in Claremorris (Mayo). Snow has also been reported in May and September. On some of these occasions the falls have been considerable but the snow melted quickly. Interestingly, Clones in Monaghan records 0.4 snow days each May according to Met Éireann's official figures for the period 1980-2011.

There is no evidence to suggest that the current setup is related to climate change as such a conclusion would have to be based on similar weather conditions occuring annually or at least prevailing over an extended period of time.

This week will bring a slow rise in temperatures but overall it will remain a few degrees colder than we would expect for this time of year. The jetstream looks like it will find itself in a more familiar position over Ireland and Britain within 7-10 days which means a return to a westerly/southwesterly setup with rain at times.  There is no indication yet as to what the summer will bring Ireland weatherwise.

Thursday, March 28, 2013

Jetstream stays south of Ireland and UK next week

Image METEOCIEL.FR
The Jetstream which is normally positioned over Ireland bringing us milder westerlies and showers or bands of rain, will be pushed as far south as North Africa next week (see image).

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

On this day in 2012 ....

This satellite image of Ireland was taken on this day last year and as can be seen, not a cloud in sight. What a beautiful day it was as well, with temps easily reaching between 18.0 C - 20.0 C quite widely across the country.

Today, we have temps struggling to get above 2.0c in some places.


Credit: Skies of Ireland:

Monday, March 25, 2013

Installation failed...Spring on hold for now


Once again, the new working week begins as it has done so many times since mid-February with below average temperatures for the time of year. The Celtic Spring (as opposed to the meteorological or astrological season) is almost two thirds over and the Celtic summer is less than 5 weeks away but wintry conditions continue to dominate our weather.

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Coldest start to March since 1995

Boreas, the Greek god of the North wind who certainly has made his presence felt over Ireland this March so far.

Monday, March 4, 2013

Relatively cold winter for many parts of Ireland, rainfall amounts varied


Mean air temperatures for Winter were above average in areas in the South, Southwest and Northwest, with mean temperatures elsewhere below average. 

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

A Simple Guide to Decoding METARs and TAFs

The Meteo Times' Fergal Tierney writes:

METARs (METeorological Aviation Reports) and TAFs (Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts) can appear quite confusing at first glance, but after a little practice they can be decoded instantly and can be a useful tool for anybody who wants a quick idea of the present weather, and what it will do in the coming hours. They are primarily issued for aviation personnel (Pilots, Air Traffic Controllers, Airport Authorities, etc.) but can be used by anybody who knows how to decode them.

METARs

A METAR is a coded text report of the current weather conditions observed at an airport, and is issued every 30 minutes in Ireland. It gives information on wind (speed and direction), visibility, current weather, the coverage and heights of cloud layers, temperature, dewpoint, atmospheric pressure, plus in some cases, a trend forecast for the next two hours. Let's take an example from Dublin Airport.

EIDW 072100Z 35008KT 8000 -RADZ SCT002 SCT006 BKN012 03/03 Q0989 NOSIG=

Come back, don't be afraid, it's all very easy! Let's break it down:

EIDW - This is the ICAO Code for Dublin Airport.

072100Z - The first 2 digits are the date (in this case the 7th), the other digits are the time of the report, in UTC/GMT (Z is a military code for UTC). This report was issued at 2100UTC (or 9pm GMT)

36008KT - This is the average wind measured over the previous 10 minutes. The first 3 digits represent the direction (in degrees true) from which the wind is blowing. Imagine a clockface, divided into 360 divisions (degrees true). North is 0° or 360°, East is 90°, South is 180°, West is 270°, etc. A direction of say 350° means wind blowing from just west of due North. The direction will always be reported by 3 digits, so a wind from say 30° (North-northeast) would be written as 030 (and read "zero three zero"). The next 2 digits are the speed, in knots (1 knot = 1.15 mph, or 1.85 kph). So in the METAR above we have an 8kt wind blowing from roughly north (350°, "three five zero degrees"). Sometimes you will see something like 27014G29KT. The G29 part represents the highest gust recorded in the last 10 minutes, so the wind in this case would be read "Wind two seven zero degrees, one four, gusting two niner, knots". You may also see something like 310V060 following the wind group. This shows the variation in wind direction, so in this case it would read "varying between three one zero and zero six zero degrees".

8000 - This is the minimum visibility observed/measured, in metres. For visibilities of 10 km or more, only the 4 digits 9999 will be used.

-RADZ - The current weather is light rain and drizzle. Other common descriptors are RA (RAin), DZ (DriZzle), SN (SNow), RASN (Sleet, i.e. Rain and Snow), GR (Hail), GS (Graupel), TSRA (ThunderStorm with RAin), FG, (FoG), BR (Mist), MIFG (Shallow FoG), FZFG (FreeZing FoG), HZ (HaZe). A - before it means "Light", a + means "Heavy", and no quantifier means "Moderate". So +TSRA means "Thunderstorm with heavy rain", RA means "Moderate Rain", -SN means "Light Snow", etc.

SCT006 BKN012 - These represent the coverage and heights of the cloud bases. SCT (Scattered) means 3-5 oktas (eighths) of the sky is covered, BKN (Broken) means 6-7 oktas. 006 and 012 are the cloud base heights, in hundreds of feet above ground level (not sea level), therefore the METAR reports Scattered clouds at 600ft and Broken clouds at 1,200ft above ground level (agl).

Other cloud descriptors are SKC (SKy Clear), FEW (1-2 oktas) and OVC (Overcast, 8 oktas). In good weather you may see CAVOK (Ceiling And Visibility OK) replacing the visibility and cloud groups, as it means that conditions are good for flying (no significant weather, visibility of 10km or more, no clouds below 5,000ft, no Cumulonimbus (Cb) or Towering Cumulus (TuCu) clouds (which would imply strong turbulence for an aircraft)).

03/03 - The first 2 digits are the temperature, and the last two digits are the dewpoint, both in °C. Negative values are shown with an M in front, eg. M03/M06 (temperature -3°C, dewpoint -6°C).

Q0989 - This is the sea-level atmospheric pressure, in whole hectoPascals (or millibars). In this case it's 989hPa.

NOSIG - This means "NO SIGnificant change is expected within the next two hours". In some cases, where the weather is changing rapidly, this will be replaced by a trend forecast, in the same format explained in the TAF section next.

= - This signifies the end of the report.



TAFs

A TAF is a coded text forecast of the weather conditions expected within a 5 nautical mile radius of the airport over the duration of the validity period indicated. As it is only a forecast for the local area, in some cases it may not be representative of the conditions further afield, due to local topography, lakes, etc. TAFs are issued every six hours, at 0500, 1100, 1700 and 2300Z, and are valid for 24 hours from the hour following the time of issue. In Ireland, TAFs are generated by meteorologists at Shannon Airport, and this human input ensures that they are as accurate as possible, but in some cases they may be amended to reflect changes different to those forecast.

Here is an example of a TAF issued for Cork Airport.

EICK 081100Z 0812/0912 25010KT 9999 SCT018
BECMG 0812/0814 26015KT
TEMPO 0813/0820 27017G28KT SCT017CB
PROB30 TEMPO 0815/0819 5000 -SHRA SCT010 SCT017CB BKN020
BECMG 0820/0823 28008KT
BECMG 0909/0912 23007KT=

The codes are similar to the METAR codes above.

EICK - The ICAO Code for Cork Airport.

081100Z - TAF issued at 1100GMT on the 8th.

0812/0912 - TAF is valid from 1200GMT on the 8th to 1200GMT on the 9th.

25010KT - Wind is expected to be from 250 degrees (Westerly) at 10 knots.

9999 - Visibility 10 km or more.

SCT018 - Scattered clouds at 1,800ft above ground level.

BECMG 0812/0814 - BECoMinG (ie. a permanent change is expected to occur) between 1200 GMT and 1400GMT on the 8th....

26015KT - Wind from 260 degrees at 15 knots

TEMPO 0812/0820 27017G28KT SCT017CB - Between 1200GMT and 2000GMT on the 8th, it will TEMPOrarily be Wind 27017G28KT and SCT017CB (Scattered Cumulonimbus clouds at 1,800ft). "Temporarily" means "for less than half of the time period specified".

PROB30 TEMPO 0815/0819 5000 -SHRA SCT010 SCT017CB BKN020 - There is a 30% probability that temporarily between 1500GMT and 1900GMT on the 8th, visibility will reduce to 5000 metres in light rain showers, with scattered clouds at 1000ft, scattered Cumulonimbus at 1,700ft, and broken clouds at 2,000ft.

PROB30 means a slight chance. PROB40 means a medium chance. These are ways for the forecaster to show his/her confidence in this part of the forecast. PROB30 means there is a possibility that warrants a mention, but it probably won't happen. PROB40 means it's more likely to happen, but it's still not certain. If they wrote BECMG, they would be fully confident that the change would occur.

BECMG 0820/0823 28008KT - Wind changing to 28008KT some time between 2000GMT and 2300GMT on the 8th

BECMG 0909/0912 23007KT= - Wind changing to 23007KT some time between 0900GMT and 1200GMT on the 9th. End of TAF.



This is a good site for viewing the latest METARs and TAFs in both coded and decoded format. Click on each airport. With a little practice, you will be able to read through each report without needing to consult the decoded text on the right.

This site gives the latest METARs and TAFs (undecoded) for Europe and North Africa, overlayed on the latest IR satellite picture.

Fergal Tierney is an Applied Physics and Chemistry graduate and holds a Private Pilot's Licence.

Saturday, September 8, 2012

Weather Data For Ireland - 7 September 2012

Click on the image for an enlarged view. Image ogimet.com

Friday, September 7, 2012

Met Office Publishes Long-Term UK Climate Averages

The Met Office long-term UK climate averages have leapt forward a decade into the 21st Century to give the most up-to-date picture of our climate today, as well as an insight into how it has changed. 

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Weather Data For Ireland - 4 September 2012

Ireland's weather data for Tuesday, 04 September 2012.

Friday, August 24, 2012

Accuweather Releases Winter 2012-13 Forecast For USA

 
Following a snow drought during winter 2011-2012, the mid-Atlantic and southern New England will get a snow dump this winter. That is according to Accuweather in its provisional Winter 2012-13 Forecast for the United States.

UK August Bank Holiday Weekend Weather


With people having time off and travelling around the country, the weather will, as always, play an important part for those planning on heading out and about.

How The Sun Could Control Earth's Temperature

Stephen Wilde (biography below) presents "Stephen Wilde’s New Climate Model".  In this first feature article, Stephen examines  "How The Sun Could Control Earth's Temperature". 


Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Weather Data For Ireland - 20 August 2012

Click to enlarge. Data ogimet.com.

Sunday, August 19, 2012

Atmospheric Pressure And Pressure Levels Explained


If you are a regular visitor to this site then you have probably heard many references to terms such as the "850hPa temperatures" or "500hPa troughs" and wondered what exactly they mean, The Meteo Times' synoptics forecaster Fergal Tierney writes.

NASA Tracks Electron Beams From The Sun

NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) observes a wide array of particles that flow toward Earth from the sun to better understand the great space weather system that connects the sun to our planet. Credit: NASA/H. ZelL. 

New Light Shed On Ancient Egypt's Climate


Ancient pollen and charcoal preserved in deeply buried sediments in Egypt's Nile Delta document the region's ancient droughts and fires, including a huge drought 4,200 years ago associated with the demise of Egypt's Old Kingdom, the era known as the pyramid-building time.

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Heavy Thundery Showers Alert – 16/17 August 2012

Sat24.com satellite image showing rain front moving north-northeast toward the south Irish coast.
Heavier showers with some embedded thunder will develop rapidly this evening and will sweep northeast across most regions overnight.