The return to milder weather this week looks like being replaced by much colder conditions in Ireland and Britain for a time next week.
The latest GEFS ensembles show daytime temperatures plunging to low single figures during the early days of next week. Severe night time frosts are likely while the highest risk of any wintry showers will be in northern and eastern regions of Ireland, as well as Eastern and Northern parts of Britain.
 |
| GEFS model mean ensemble air temperature for County Down. Image c/o Netweather |
The GFS weather model shows a plunge of cold air extending southwest over Ireland through Sunday night into Monday (first image), while the ECM has a less cold setup influencing our weather from Tuesday through Wednesday (second image below). At present, any severe cold spell is likely to be short-lived. IMAGES c/o Meteociel.fr.
If the GFS model were to verify, scattered, heavy snow and graupel showers would also affect northern, eastern and southern regions. Night-time frosts would also be severe, especially in sheltered, inland spots. If the ECM model were to verify, the airmass over Ireland would originate from a more northerly rather than east to northeast continental source. Wintry showers would be less frequent and more confined to coastal districts of the north and east.
According to TMT Senior Forecaster Peter O'Donnell: "Monday and Tuesday could see a return to wintry weather and some outbreaks of snow or sleet This has about a 60% confidence level from model consensus tempered by the time ahead plus the history of near misses this winter (perhaps weak solutions would be a better phrase than near misses). As usual, the greater chance of wintry precipitation would likely be in the east and north. Beyond mid-week it seems likely to become more seasonable as the cold outbreak drains away towards the south and allows the Atlantic to return."
The Meteo Times daily long range weather forecast contains further details in relation to the coming week’s weather in Ireland. Click here to view.
