There has been a lot of talk in recent days on the potential for very cold weather developing later this week. However, the outlook remains rather uncertain with a battleground scenario developing between milder Atlantic air and a cold east to northeast originating airmass.
The Meteo Times currently (Wed A.M.) estimates that for most of next week, the chances of modified cold with mixed precipitation about 50%, deep cold and snow are about 30%, and milder intervals about 20%. Whatever happens, it is likely to be mostly cloudy with temperatures quite likely on a strong gradient from cold in Ulster to somewhat milder in west Munster, and in the range of -1 to +6 C across the country.
The details will become clearer as we get closer to the period, and beyond next week, there are some indications of a brief return to milder weather followed by a more severe cold spell than what we're probably going to see next week. The only real certainty at this stage is that all computer models will go through changes and we will reflect these in our daily forecasts.
The below animation features the 00z run of the ECMWF weather forecasting computer model. The parameters featured are 850hpas or upper air temperatures (approx. 1500m above the surface). The animation illustrates the battleground scenario between milder air from the west/southwest and much colder air from the Continent during the coming 10 days.
Note that the ECMWF is one of a number of medium range forecasting models. At present, each of the models is depicting a different situation with some indicating milder weather and others going for much deeper cold to become established across Ireland from Sunday.
Commenting on the uncertainty in relation to the coming week's weather, TMT Senior Forecaster Peter O'Donnell stated: "Forecast models have been shifting around considerably and during the day on Tuesday the general consensus was heavily towards much colder weather next week. Now I find that that change has been partially but not totally reversed. We are also seeing a role reversal of leading models like what happened in December when there was a rather similar threat. This is all stated to explain my decision to hedge my forecast outlook for next week because the outcome most likely is transitional, not a full-on cold spell and not a complete return to mild either."
"I think we're dealing with an uncertain situation where percentage chances (outlined in article above) are needed to give some realistic guidance. But I do continue to believe that sooner or later, the U.K. and Ireland can expect spells of severe winter weather. If that begins next week, it may back off for a time before returning in stronger concentrations. The timing is not the only factor to consider, people would be wise to prepare for a wintry period of some length given the combination of evident risk and ongoing stratospheric warming events. This concern would not be reduced if next week's cold happens to be downgraded later in the forecast period," Peter added.
Forecast for Ireland
TODAY ... Widespread fog and frost, icy road conditions, giving way gradually to sunshine in some places, but staying rather cold, highs 2-6 C for most, about 8 C around the southwest coastal districts.
TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, frost and fog may return shortly after sunset in Ulster and Leinster, but cloud should prevent that in parts of Connacht and Munster, then sleet or rain will spread in, with snow possible in higher terrain (about 300m or higher) ... 5-10 mm of rain or equivalent will hit most places in the south and west before morning, lows -2 to +3 C.
THURSDAY ... The band of sleet or rain will weaken and move further east, followed by mostly cloudy skies and rather cold temperatures throughout, highs about 4-7 C.
FRIDAY ... A cold, frosty start in most areas, some freezing fog and icy roads again, lows -3 to +2 C, then cloudy with light rain perhaps starting as wet snow or sleet especially in higher parts of northwest and Kerry. It may stay dry most of the day in the east except for a few isolated wintry showers in weak streamers from the Irish Sea. Highs 4-7 C.
SATURDAY ... Periods of rain at lower elevations, sleet or snow higher up, cold although somewhat milder in the southwest, lows 2-4 C and highs about 5 or 6 C but 8-10 C possible in southwest.
SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, further showers mixing with wet snow in Ulster and possibly other places, cold but still generally above freezing in the range of 3-6 C. West coast could warm up slightly in a northwest flow to 8 C.
OUTLOOK ... The outlook is rather uncertain with a battleground scenario developing, and I currently estimate that for most of next week, the chances of deep cold and snow are about 30 per cent, modified cold with mixed precipitation about 50 per cent, and milder intervals about 20 per cent. Whatever happens, it is likely to be mostly cloudy with temperatures quite likely on a strong gradient from cold in Ulster to somewhat milder in west Munster, and in the range of -1 to +6 C across the country. The details will become clearer as we get closer to the period, and beyond next week, there are some indications of a brief return to milder weather followed by a more severe cold spell than what we're probably going to see next week.
View our daily long range weather forecast here for updates along with our forecast for Britain. Regular updates are also featured on Twitter and Facebook.
Other useful links for keeping up to date with the weather prospects for the coming week:
Met Eireann
UKMO Northern Ireland
Other useful links for keeping up to date with the weather prospects for the coming week:
Met Eireann
UKMO Northern Ireland
